Assessing the 2013 and 2017 Business Cycle Turning Points Signalled by the SARB’s Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator

J. C. Venter ()
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J. C. Venter: South African Reserve Bank

A chapter in Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa, 2020, pp 265-284 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In the 10 years following the global financial crisis, the South African economy was characterised by various structural supply-side constraints, heightened uncertainty and fairly volatile output growth. This chapter employs the indicator approach to business cycle analysis, in particular, the SARB’s composite leading business cycle indicator, to establish whether the current downward phase in the South African business cycle could reasonably have been predicted, and also whether the recent strong increase in the composite leading business cycle indicator provided a clear signal that the downward phase might have ended. The results show that the leading indicator and its subcomponents predicted a broad slowdown in the South African economy from 2012. Also, the recent upward trend in the leading indicator did initially signal the end of the current downward phase in the business cycle in an unambiguous manner. However, the strength of the lower turning point signal was weakened by idiosyncratic exogenous factors.

Keywords: Growth cycles; Composite leading business cycle indicator; Cyclical turning points; E32; E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2_9

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