The Impact of the Draft Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act on the United States Dollar Coin Market

Jiancong Chen ()
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Jiancong Chen: SILC Business School, Shanghai University, School of Finance

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2025 International Conference on Hybrid Commerce, Human Capital, and Economic Dynamics (ICHCH 2025), 2026, pp 884-892 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In 2025, the U.S. released a draft of the Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act (hereafter referred to as the “GENIUS Act”), which sets forth clear compliance criteria for payment-oriented stablecoins. Drawing on Coingecko data spanning November 5, 2024, to February 13, 2025, this research adopts the event study approach—with February 4, 2025, as the key event date—and integrates dual-benchmark regression (using Bitcoin and the combined United States dollar Coin (USDC) + United States Dollar Tether (USDT) index) to examine how compliance expectations shape market dynamics and the validity of the selected benchmarks. The findings indicate that USDC’s Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) is negative but statistically insignificant (P>0.05), a result suggesting the market had already formed anticipations of USDC’s compliance with the Act. In contrast, Dai exhibits a more negative CAR, which reflects the impact of differences in stablecoins’ alignment with compliance requirements. This dual-benchmark comparison confirms that the USDC+USDT index can effectively isolate system-wide factors in the cryptocurrency market, and reveals that compliance expectations influence USDC’s market value primarily through capital redistribution within the stablecoin sector. These insights provide a reference for interactions between regulatory bodies and market participants.

Keywords: Stablecoin; Event Study Method; Dual Benchmark Regression; GENIUS Act (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.2991/978-2-38476-585-0_100

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