The Impact of Multiple Shocks on Global Crude Oil Trade Based on the GTAP Model

Luyao Wang ()
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Luyao Wang: College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026), 2026, pp 250-257 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Due to the fact that global crude oil trade is jointly affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and shortage of transportation capacity, in order to systematically evaluate the economic effects of global crude oil trade under multiple shocks, this paper uses the GTAP model to simulate three shock scenarios and a combined scenario: the increase in maritime distance, the increase in tariff barriers, and the decline in the coefficient of maritime technology progress. The study found that the simulation results of different scenarios have significant asymmetric and nonlinear amplification characteristics, among which the decline in the coefficient of technological progress has the greatest impact on global crude oil trade. The global flow of crude oil trade is moving towards “regionalization”, and the demand for long-distance crude oil trade is decreasing. The overall economic performance of countries and the impact on industries are not completely consistent. Based on the simulation results, this paper proposes that proactive measures should be taken to address various challenges faced by energy trade.

Keywords: GTAP model; crude oil trade; multiple shocks; trade impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-701-9_27

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_27

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