The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from China

Xue Lin () and Weiqiang Wang
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Xue Lin: Zhengzhou University
Weiqiang Wang: Zhengzhou University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2026), 2026, pp 290-305 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Amid rising trade protectionism and deglobalization, Chinese firms face increasing exposure to trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Understanding how TPU influences corporate supply chain resilience is therefore crucial for building a modern industrial system and promoting high-quality economic development. Using 2010-2023 panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms, this study constructs a firm-level TPU index via annual report textual analysis and measures SCR with an entropy-based multidimensional index. Employing firm- and year-fixed effects models, we find that higher TPU significantly weakens corporate supply chain resilience. Mechanism analysis suggests that this adverse effect mainly operates through reduced innovation activities and heightened financing constraints. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact is more pronounced among firms located in eastern China firms, SOEs, high-technology industry firms, and firms with weaker financial conditions. These findings offer important policy implications for mitigating uncertainty shocks, strengthening supply chain resilience, and safeguarding supply chain security.

Keywords: Trade Policy Uncertainty; Supply Chain Resilience; Innovation; Financing Constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-701-9_31

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-701-9_31

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