Agricultural Sector Growth and Rural Poverty: Evidence via Semiparametric Spline Path Analysis

Sabir Sabir () and Muh Zhaahir Zaki Sabir
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Sabir Sabir: Hasanuddin University
Muh Zhaahir Zaki Sabir: Hasanuddin University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (10th ICAME 2025), 2026, pp 129-148 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to analyze the causal relationship of the variables of Rural Population Migration, Land Use of Agriculture, and Village Funds to the variables of Agricultural Sector Growth and Poverty in Rural areas. The data used is secondary data of 33 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2015–2022 obtained from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics, and related ministries. There are linear and non-linear variable relationships, so it is appropriate to use the Truncated Spline semiparametric path analysis model which is the novelty of this research. The measurement results with Truncated Spline show that: (1) the variables of population migration, land use change, and village funds have a significant effect on the growth of the agricultural sector and rural poverty, (2) the truncated spline semiparametric path analysis model is very effective in this study, especially for non-linear forms of relationships between variables. (3) the variable of land use change in rural areas can increase the growth rate of the agricultural sector before finally reducing poverty with a maximum land area limit of 602. 721 hectares, and (4) the village fund variable can reduce rural poverty at a higher rate if the allocation amount is more than IDR. 4,037,405,060.00 per village in one fiscal year during the observation period.

Keywords: Growth of the Agricultural Sector; Rural Poverty; Semiparametric Path Analysis; Truncated Spline; Village Funds (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_10

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