World Oil Prices, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Current Geopolitical Conditions

Rini Rizky Amelia Ridwan () and Maat Pono ()
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Rini Rizky Amelia Ridwan: Hasanuddin University
Maat Pono: Hasanuddin University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (10th ICAME 2025), 2026, pp 1699-1712 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to explore the connections between stock prices of Indonesian energy firms (specifically those engaged in oil extraction and listed on the IDX 30 index) and fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates. Geopolitical influences, including persistent global disputes, play a pivotal role in shaping energy supply and demand dynamics, often triggering sharp variations in energy costs. At present, escalating geopolitical strains are amplifying challenges within the international energy landscape, driving sustained cost increases that extend into broader financial systems. Adopting an associative quantitative methodology, the research draws on a dataset of 40 observations, sourced from past records of stock performance, oil benchmarks (such as Brent crude), and exchange rate movements (IDR/USD) across a defined timeframe. Multiple linear regression analysis, performed using EViews software, evaluates the combined and individual influences of these factors. The results indicate no discernible effect from exchange rates or oil prices on stock values, whether considered together or separately, as evidenced by insignificant coefficients (p > 0.05). This absence of influence points to the robustness of Indonesia's energy sector, which may stem from effective regulatory frameworks, varied income sources, or advanced strategies for managing risks. In the end, these outcomes illuminate the complex dynamics linking local financial environments to global economic forces, providing useful perspectives for investors, regulators, and subsequent research on econometric patterns in developing markets.

Keywords: oil prices; exchange rates; stock prices; geopolitical conflicts; trade wars (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-709-5_119

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