The Price of Prediction: Algorithmic Food Security and the Illusion of Control

Amine M. Benmehaia ()
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Amine M. Benmehaia: University of Biskra, Department of Agricultural Sciences

A chapter in Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Business Administration in MENA Region (ICAIABA 2026), 2026, pp 396-406 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Food security governance in import-dependent economies has shifted toward algorithmic anticipation, with forecasts guiding procurement and reserve decisions in staple food markets. This paper argues that this shift reflects a reordering of coordination signals rather than a purely technical gain in prediction. I develop a parsimonious model of an accountability-constrained political planner contrasting price-signal governance with forecast-signal governance. Forecast-based policy can reduce visible price volatility under routine conditions but weakens price-mediated feedback and shifts risk toward the tails of the distribution. When forecast errors are correlated, centralized anticipation synchronizes policy responses, increasing systemic fragility and the likelihood of rare but severe disruptions despite headline stability. The analysis highlights a fundamental trade-off between visible stability and resilience and underscores the value of hybrid governance arrangements in which algorithmic forecasts complement, rather than replace, price-based coordination.

Keywords: Food security; algorithmic governance; price signals; political accountability; systemic risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-711-8_37

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-711-8_37

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