Prediction of COMEX Gold Futures Prices During the Epidemic Based on the ARIMA Model

Xinyue Feng, Zhixuan Fu () and Xingyi Li
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Xinyue Feng: Tongji University, School of Economics and Management
Zhixuan Fu: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, School of Nursing
Xingyi Li: Fowler College of Business, San Diego State University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture (ICEDBC 2022), 2022, pp 1032-1039 from Springer

Abstract: ABSTRACT Since the COVID-19 appeared in 2019, the price of gold futures has been quite different from the past. We analyzed the supply and demand of gold futures during the epidemic and found some of the reasons for the rise in gold futures prices. Besides, we expect to use the ARIMA to model the COMEX gold futures price during the epidemic and we choose 589 data from December 2, 2019, to April 4, 2022. After some testing, we found that the ARIMA(1,1,3) quite fit the actual prices, although a few points have a large gap between the predicted value and the actual value. We roughly divide these points into three intervals. By analyzing these points, we get the direction of improving the accuracy of this model and give some suggestions in the article. This article can help investors predict the price of COMEX gold futures in a short period, but it cannot completely avoid the impact of some events that have huge fluctuations in the international economy.

Keywords: COVID-19; Demand and supply; Arima model; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-036-7_152

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