Dynamic Evaluation of Drought Disaster Comprehensive Risk for Soybean in Northeast China

Kaiwei Li and Jiquan Zhang ()
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Kaiwei Li: Northeast Normal University, School of Environment
Jiquan Zhang: Northeast Normal University, School of Environment

A chapter in Proceedings of the 10th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2022), 2023, pp 77-83 from Springer

Abstract: ABSTRACT Drought was the main natural disaster causing reduced soybean production in Northeast China. Agricultural drought risk assessment can help to improve regional disaster management capacity and thus reduce food security risks and economic losses. In this paper, we established a drought risk assessment model for different fertility stages of soybean based on the risk assessment theory, the integrated drought index of the "soil-crop-atmosphere" continuum and the CROPGRO-Soybean model, and determined the dynamic evaluation index system of soybean drought risk and the zoning levels (light, medium, severe and very severe). The dynamic evaluation of drought risk in soybean in Northeast China during the period 1982-2020 was carried out in different fertility stages. The results showed that the drought risk in the north-central part of the study area was extremely high in the early reproductive period, which was also the most exposed area for soybean cultivation, and could be reduced by late sowing or irrigation. The drought risk in the central and southern part of the Songliao Plain was at the severe and very severe levels due to less rainfall and higher temperatures. In the late reproductive stage, the very severe drought risk areas are mainly concentrated in the central and western part of Jilin Province and the area around Tongliao and Chifeng in Inner Mongolia. Improving irrigation capacity and input levels can enhance local disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, thereby reducing the drought risk of soybean production. In this study, the drought integrated disaster risk of northeastern soybean was dynamically assessed by reproductive stage, which will provide a scientific basis for efficient and high quality production, disaster prevention and mitigation of soybean.

Keywords: Drought; Comprehensive Risk; Dynamic Evaluation; Northeast Soybean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-194-4_12

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