Price Prediction of Second-hand Houses in Beijing in the Post-epidemic Era Based on ARIMA Model

Mengyao Ren ()
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Mengyao Ren: Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2023 2nd International Conference on Economics, Smart Finance and Contemporary Trade (ESFCT 2023), 2024, pp 55-61 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract As one of China’s pillar industries, the growth of the national economy is significantly influenced by the real estate sector. Affected by the epidemic, the real estate capital chain is broken, and the real estate market faced crisis. At the beginning of 2023, the national policy was liberalized, and the real estate market gradually recovered. This paper takes the listing price of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing during the epidemic period as the research object, establishes an ARIMA model, analyzes the monthly data during the epidemic period from 2019 to 2023, and uses R software to predict the trend of real estate prices in Beijing in the next two years. The findings indicate that by the start of 2024, Beijing’s second-hand house prices would continue to expand steadily and healthily. The significance of this paper is to use the past and current values of the time series of secondary residential prices to accurately predict real estate prices in the post-epidemic era. These results provide a basis for the national macroeconomic regulation of the real estate market.

Keywords: Real estate; ARIMA model; Price forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-268-2_8

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-268-2_8

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