Study on the Structural Stability of Macau Tourism Consumption Based on Chow-Test Dummy Model

Dazhi Yue ()
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Dazhi Yue: Xiamen Institute of Technology. Research Direction: Quantitative Economics, Business School

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2023 5th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2023), 2024, pp 225-233 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Macao, with its unique advantages, presents a diversified and heterogeneous tourism development model. It has become a new fashion and hot spot for Chinese mainland tourists to enter Macao. In this paper, we use the relevant data of the annual hotel and catering business and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the website of Macao Statistics and Census Bureau, and use the Chow-Test Dummy model to study whether the tourism consumption structure of Macao is stable after the introduction of the “eight Provisions” policy. The results show that the impact of the policy on Macau tourism consumption has a weak temporal heterogeneity, as follows: After the policy was introduced, the hotel revenue increased by an average of 417 million patacas per year, an increase of 4.4%, without significant structural changes; The average annual growth rate of catering industry turnover from 417 million Patacas before the policy to 571 million Patacas after the policy has not shown a significant structural change; The total retail sales of social consumer goods declined after the policy was introduced, with an average annual decline of 16.2%, but it did not pass the test, indicating that there was no significant change in the consumption structure.

Keywords: Chow-Test; Macau tourism; Consumption structure; stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-368-9_27

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