Study on Carbon Emission Measurement Effects and Factors of Trade in Agricultural Products in China

Xintong Liu ()
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Xintong Liu: Concord College

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2024), 2024, pp 135-148 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The carbon emissions derived from production energy consumption have been transferred from country to country through trade segregation, which in turn has changed the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of global carbon emissions. Trade in agricultural products provides an interface for the release of carbon emissions at the production end of the “outer cycle”. The “double-edged sword” effect can not only alleviate the carbon pressure on domestic agriculture but also may exacerbate the problem of international carbon transfer. In this article, the total amount and change trend of carbon emissions in agriculture and forestry sectors were calculated, the IO-SDA model was used to decompose the impact of carbon emissions from the scale effect, structural effect, and technological effect, two types of counterfactual extreme scenarios 1 and 2 were set up, and the demand for trade in intermediate products and the trade structure were introduced to measure the effect of carbon emission reduction. The results showed that, firstly, the total carbon emissions of trade in agricultural products in China basically showed a trend of first rising and then falling; in terms of industries, agriculture and forestry sectors in China showed significant differentiated development trends, and the carbon emissions of the agricultural sector were much higher than those of the forestry sector. Secondly, the technological effect factors promoted the decline of carbon emissions of trade in agriculture and forestry sectors in China, and the structural effect factors and scale effect factors slowed down the decline of carbon emissions; the overall effect of carbon emission reduction in the forestry sector was better than that of the agricultural sector. Thirdly, the counterfactual results showed that the carbon emission reduction effect of intermediate trade in agricultural products in China showed a steady increase trend, the demand for trade in intermediate products showed an overall carbon-increasing effect, and the intermediate trade structure showed an overall carbon-decreasing effect.

Keywords: Trade in agricultural products; Carbon emission measurement; IO-SDA model; Counterfactual scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_16

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