The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on China’s CPI: Overall, Food and Healthcare

Yuntong Guo ()
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Yuntong Guo: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Social Science Department

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2024), 2024, pp 173-184 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper will look at how the Chinese epidemic affects the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The ARIMA model is used to predict the overall CPI and CPI in the food and medical fields utilizing time-series information spanning 2010 to 2020, therefore illuminating their anticipated patterns as well as drivers’ significant shifts. Although the actual CPI values fluctuated beyond the model forecast values in certain periods, the study found that the COVID-19 outbreak generated considerable changes in the CPI and that the ARIMA model demonstrated good accuracy in CPI predictions before and during the epidemic. The significance of this study lies in providing a profound understanding of economic fluctuations in the context of a sudden public health event by analyzing the impact of the Chinese epidemic on CPI. This provides data support for government and enterprises in formulating economic policies and business strategies and guides residents’ consumption decisions. For statistical authorities, it is suggested that they should fully consider the impact of unexpected events and external shocks when conducting economic forecasts and establish emergency response plans and adjustment mechanisms to enhance the adaptability and accuracy of forecast models. For consumers, it is recommended to treat price fluctuations rationally during emergencies such as the epidemic, avoid blind hoarding or excessive consumption, and adjust consumption behavior according to the actual economic environment.

Keywords: ARIMA Model; CPI; Covid-19 Pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-598-0_19

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_19

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