The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Changes in Trade Volume in Countries Along the Route: A Study Based on the Mann-Kendall Test and STL Decomposition

Weiqi Jiang, Haozhuo Guo () and Longyao Lin
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Weiqi Jiang: South China University of Technology, Department of Electronic Business
Haozhuo Guo: South China University of Technology, Department of Electronic Business
Longyao Lin: South China University of Technology, Department of Electronic Business

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2025 10th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2025), 2025, pp 380-389 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Since its proposal in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative has become an important strategic framework for promoting global economic cooperation and development. With the in-depth implementation of the initiative, trade activities in countries along the route have increased significantly, promoting the coordinated development of the global economy. This study, based on the Belt and Road trade volume index, uses the Mann-Kendall trend test and STL decomposition methods to explore the impact of the initiative on changes in trade volume in countries along the route. Using the Mann-Kendall test, this study confirms that the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly increased trade volume, demonstrating its role in promoting trade. Further STL decomposition analysis reveals the seasonal fluctuations, long-term trends and random fluctuations in trade volume, and the data is further decomposed using the STL method with minimum weighted sorting entropy optimization. The results show that the Belt and Road Initiative has had a positive impact on promoting trade and economic growth, despite the varying economic growth performance of the countries along the route. In addition, this study also explores the heterogeneous performance of different countries in the context of the global political and economic environment, providing insights into future policy adjustments and international cooperation.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; trade volume; Mann-Kendall test; STL decomposition; minimum weighted sorting entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-734-2_44

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-734-2_44

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