Evaluation and Analysis of Indirect Industrial Economic Losses Caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake

Si Zhao, Shizhou Yu () and Jialong Fan
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Si Zhao: Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineer-ing Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration
Shizhou Yu: Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineer-ing Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration
Jialong Fan: Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineer-ing Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2025 10th International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2025), 2025, pp 661-674 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The rapid development of socio-economics has increased the complexity of factors influencing indirect earthquake losses and prolonged the impact duration, presenting significant challenges for assessing these losses. This study focuses on the 8.0 magnitude Wenchuan Earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008, to investigate industrial indirect economic losses, comprehensively analyzing the effect of the earthquake on the gross production value (GPV) of various industrial sectors in Sichuan Province, and estimating sector-specific indirect losses based on the GDP approach. It was found that the industry-specific indirect economic loss for Sichuan’s total industrial output to recover to pre-earthquake levels amounted to RMB 1223.734 billion, approximately 13 times the direct economic losses. This figure is also higher than the estimates obtained from other methods cited in the literature. Five years after the earthquake, the indirect economic loss reached RMB 2772.229 billion, more than double the aforementioned figure, reflecting the characteristics of sector-specific indirect losses and their sustained impacts, while discussing the relationship between recovery time and industrial resilience. The analysis lays the groundwork for developing predictive evaluation methods for indirect economic losses in industrial sectors, contributing to sustainable development planning for industries and regions before an earthquake, and providing technical support for post-earthquake reconstruction and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Disaster prevention and mitigation; Resilience; Indirect economic losses; Recovery time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-734-2_73

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