Analysis of the Supply and Demand Mechanism of LNG Price Fluctuations in China: An Empirical Study Based on the VAR Model

Manqi Zhang ()
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Manqi Zhang: Universiti Putra Malaysia, Faculty of Economics

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2025 3rd International Academic Conference on Management Innovation and Economic Development (MIED 2025), 2025, pp 856-863 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of China's LNG price dynamics from a supply-demand perspective using monthly data. Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. We analyze the interrelationships among four key variables: the return of China’s LNG import price, the return of Brent crude oil price, the year-on-year change in European natural gas reserves, and the year-on-year change in China’s natural gas import. Impulse response analysis indicates that the impact of Brent crude oil price shock on the price of liquefied natural gas in China is relatively small and lasts for a short time. The impact of LNG import has a certain positive promoting effect on prices in the short term. The shock of natural gas reserves in Europe has shown a slight but persistent negative impact.

Keywords: VAR model; Supply and Demand; LNG Price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-835-6_90

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