Forecasting the Export Value of Major Commodities in the Provinces of Sumatera

Fattaya Listy Ivonne (), Ayu Wulandari and Agung Rizki Putra
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Fattaya Listy Ivonne: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business
Ayu Wulandari: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business
Agung Rizki Putra: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025), 2025, pp 38-45 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to forecast the export value of main commodities in the provinces of the Sumatra region from January 2025 to December 2027 using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method. The data used consists of monthly export values of key commodities in each province of Sumatra, based on 2-digit HS codes, from January 2019 to December 2024, sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The results show that six commodities are projected to experience an increase in export value. These include mineral ssfuels from Aceh, Jambi, and South Sumatra; animal or vegetable fats and oils from Lampung, Riau, and West Sumatra. One commodities are expected to show fluctuating export values, namely mineral fuels from Bengkulu. On the other hand, three commodities are forecasted to experience a decline in export value, including tin from Bangka Belitung Islands; electrical machinery and appliances from Riau Islands; animal or vegetable fats and oils from North Sumatera. The provinces that dominate export activities in the Sumatra region are Riau and South Sumatra. Based on the forecasting results, the leading export commodities in the Sumatra region through 2027 are animal or vegetable fats.

Keywords: Forecasting; SARIMA; Export (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_7

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