Forecasting Tourism Demand in Europe

Dimitrios Vortelinos (), Konstantinos Gkillas (), Christos Floros and Lavrentios Vasiliadis ()
Additional contact information
Konstantinos Gkillas: University of Patras
Lavrentios Vasiliadis: University of Patras

A chapter in Operational Research in Agriculture and Tourism, 2020, pp 107-129 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We study the performance of the k nearest neighbor (kNN) forecasts in the context of European tourism demand. The forecasting performance of neural networks is examined across different parameterizations of the kNN model. The selection of the most appropriate kNN parametrization can produce more accurate forecasts. Tourism demand is forecast monthly for 20 European countries. Tourism demand is measured via seven variables for the reason of consistency in results. kNNs better forecast tourism demand in shorter horizons; in specific, 1 month ahead. The parametrization of the kNN model affects forecasting performance. More sophisticated parameterizations perform better than either an ARIMA model or a naive kNN parametrization. The inclusion of international stock indices significantly increases forecasting accuracy. The more explanatory variables employed, the higher forecasting accuracy is retrieved. However, there is not a specific group of stock markets affecting more the kNN model’s forecasting accuracy. The forecasting accuracy of kNNs differs between three (Western, Eastern and Southern) European regions.

Keywords: Nearest neighbor; Forecast; Europe; Tourism demand; L83; C53; E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:comchp:978-3-030-38766-2_6

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783030387662

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38766-2_6

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Cooperative Management from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().