Assessed Probability of Risks in Dependence on Innovative Project Description

A. D. Kornilova (), N. V. Shekhova (), N. N. Belanova () and E. V. Savoskina ()
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A. D. Kornilova: Samara State University of Economics
N. V. Shekhova: Samara State Technical University
N. N. Belanova: Samara State University of Economics
E. V. Savoskina: Samara State Technical University

A chapter in Sustainable Growth and Development of Economic Systems, 2019, pp 103-119 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Development and implementation of the innovation project involve significant risks, which require taking measures to assess the probability of risks and identify possible losses. In this work, the systematization and risk assessment of innovation activity were carried out using the example of organizations of the Russian Federation. In the course of this study, the authors revealed that the greatest risks are associated with the non-return of borrowed funds (75.28%), lack of external investment (71.99%), operational (technical) problems (76.03%), and failure to sell the product or technology of the innovation project (71.59%). All these threats are inherent in basic risks of the innovation project. Among the specific risks can be identified the risk of conservation—78.02%, and the risk of imitation of competitors by the company’s patented innovations, copying of the innovation project—62.03%. Calculation of average risk values shows that, depending on the nature of innovation activity, the level of the probability of risks undergoes significant changes. So, for example, the greatest changes in values are peculiar to specific risks (72.63–39.39%). The smallest dynamics of average values is typical for risks securing property rights (55.7–62.66%). According to the results of calculations, the authors proposed measures for risk reduction with the greatest probability. In addition to traditional methods (hedging, limitation, insurance, etc.), it is advisable to use special measures such as protection of information on innovations, staff development, external consulting, verification of prospective partners for innovation, and improvement of quality management systems.

Keywords: Innovation risks; Innovation projects; Risk assessment; Types of risks; Risk management; Risk reduction methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-11754-2_8

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