Forecasting from Simple Econometric Micromodels

Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski
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Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski: Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń

Chapter Chapter 4 in Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels, 2023, pp 53-74 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Three empirical simple models based on real data from enterprises were presented. The first model describes the cost volatility mechanism of a company listed on the stock exchange. Forecasts of production, sales, and management costs were built, observing the rule of sequential forecasting. Another simple model was based on cross-sectional data. It describes the influence of personal characteristics of workers on their individual work efficiency and quality of production. The use of an empirical model to predict the performance and quality of candidates for a vacant worker position is presented. The third of the empirical simple models, also based on cross-sectional data, describes the mechanism of influence of the personal characteristics of traders on sales effectiveness and the effectiveness of debt collection. Forecasts of the variables described in this model and their use in the decision to employ candidates for the vacant position of a trader in the enterprise are presented.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-27492-3_4

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