Cycles in the Ship Building Industry: An Empirical Evidence

Pablo Coto-Millán, José María Sarabia-Alegría and Lucía Inglada-Pérez
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Pablo Coto-Millán: University of Cantabria
José María Sarabia-Alegría: University of Cantabria
Lucía Inglada-Pérez: U.N.E.D.

A chapter in Essays on Port Economics, 2010, pp 143-147 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In the following short paper the possible cycles of the ship industry are studied through univariate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models. The adjusted model with data from the world’s fleets (1924–1994) presents an empirical contrast which seems to confirm the coexistence of long and short cycles in the maritime transport of 4 and 12.7 years, respectively. The result seems to confirm the well known Cobwed theorem in the case of short-run cycles and long-run stock cycles.

Keywords: Short Cycle; ARIMA Model; Complex Root; Suez Canal; Maritime Transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:conchp:978-3-7908-2425-4_10

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7908-2425-4_10

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