How Recognizable Is the Black Swan?

Khalil Dindarian

Chapter 12 in Embracing the Black Swan, 2023, pp 155-157 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Black Swan events are wholly unexpected occurrences that happen outside the normal range of predictability, with potentially disastrous consequences. Since these cannot be predicted, we must be prepared for the unexpected. Retrospective knowledge is useless when we have already suffered serious consequences. Since Black Swans can be so destructive in macroeconomic and geopolitical terms, Resilience becomes particularly relevant. Governments and organizations, had they applied the principles described in this book, would arguably have been better prepared to deal with recent events when they arose and to prevent the negative outcomes we witnessed. What we must therefore ask ourselves is, how can we identify those emerging risks and assess them, and then embed the findings of our assessment within strategic management and decision-making processes? By doing so, we can be much better prepared for Black Swans so that we can not only neutralize their impact but even capitalize on it.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-29344-3_12

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