Strategies for Sequential Prediction of Stationary Time Series

László Gyöfi () and Gábor Lugosi ()
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László Gyöfi: Technical University of Budapest
Gábor Lugosi: Pompeu Fabra University

Chapter Chapter 11 in Modeling Uncertainty, 2002, pp 225-248 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combination of several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Keywords: Gaussian Process; Modeling Uncertainty; Ergodic Theorem; Prediction Strategy; Stationary Time Series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-0-306-48102-4_11

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DOI: 10.1007/0-306-48102-2_11

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