Coping with Climate Risks in Indonesian Rice Agriculture: A Policy Perspective

Rosamond L. Naylor and Michael D. Mastrandrea
Additional contact information
Rosamond L. Naylor: Stanford University
Michael D. Mastrandrea: Stanford University

Chapter Chapter 4 in Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making, 2009, pp 127-153 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Policymakers responsible for agriculture, rural economic growth, and food security worldwide are confronted by a myriad of climate-related risks. This chapter provides a framework for using climate information in the design of policy to manage such risks, highlighting several tools of analysis that can be applied in the context of both climate variability and global climate change. The concepts are developed through a case study of the rice sector in Indonesia, a country directly affected by climate variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. The risk assessment model is based on the probability of climate events, critical thresholds of damage related to those events, and the role of policy in reducing climate-related impacts on agricultural systems. Because risk assessment involves estimation of both the probability of climate events and the expected consequences of those climate events, Bayesian analysis is applied to show how climate information can be used to update subjective probabilities over short and long time scales. Bayesian updating can help reduce the chances that policymakers will make the wrong policy decision given all of the available information. Even with these tools, however, the chapter shows that there is always the chance for Type I and Type II errors in policymaking, because the climate system is impossible to predict with certainty.

Keywords: Rice Production; Monsoon Onset; Climate Risk; International Research Institute; Warm Water Volume (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-1-4419-1129-2_4

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9781441911292

DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-1129-2_4

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in International Series in Operations Research & Management Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().