Comparative Forecasting and a Test for Persistence in the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Belinda A. Chiera (), Jerzy A. Filar (), Daniel S. Zachary () and Adrian H. Gordon
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Belinda A. Chiera: University of South Australia
Jerzy A. Filar: University of South Australia
Daniel S. Zachary: Centre de Ressources des Technologies pour l’Environnement (CRTE)

Chapter Chapter 9 in Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making, 2009, pp 255-273 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We present an analysis of two separate single-indicator forecasting methods for the El Nino Southern Oscillation based on oscillation persistence. We use the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to produce short term 5 month forecasts and a Bayesian approach to explore SOI persistence, with results compared to a benchmarking Taylor Series expansion.We find signal persistence is important when forecasting more than a few months and the models presented may provide a relatively simple approach to environmental risk forecasting in situations where the underlying phenomenon exhibits substantial persistence.

Keywords: Indian Summer Monsoon; Southern Oscillation Index; Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall; Probabilistic Forecast; Bayesian Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-1-4419-1129-2_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-1129-2_9

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