An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model

Anca M. Hanea () and Gabriela F. Nane
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Anca M. Hanea: University of Melbourne
Gabriela F. Nane: Delft University of Technology

Chapter Chapter 10 in Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, 2021, pp 225-256 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method for performing Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is the best-known method that promotes expert performance evaluation when aggregating experts’ assessments of uncertain quantities. Assessing experts’ performance in quantifying uncertainty involves two scores in CM, the calibration score (or statistical accuracy) and the information score. The two scores combine into overall scores, which, in turn, yield weights for a performance-based aggregation of experts’ opinions. The method is fairly demanding, and therefore carrying out a SEJ elicitation with CM requires careful consideration. This chapter aims to address the methodological and practical aspects of CM into a comprehensive overview of the CM elicitation process. It complements the chapter “Elicitation in the Classical Model” in the book Elicitation (Quigley et al. 2018). Nonetheless, we regard this chapter as a stand-alone material, hence some concepts and definitions will be repeated, for the sake of completeness.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_10

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