 Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk AssessmentGordon Woo ()
Chapter Chapter 22 in Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, 2021, pp 485-501 from Springer Abstract: Abstract Since 9/11, the probabilistic risk assessment of losses from terrorism has formed a quantitative basis for informed terrorism risk management. An irreducible element is the elicitation of expert judgement. In any application domain, the reliance on expert judgement can be minimized through the establishment of core conceptual principles, such as economic game theory and adversarial risk analysis, which govern the risk phenomena under consideration. For non-state threat actors, such as the Jihadi groups, Al Qaeda and ISIS, their limited logistical resources compared with western counter-terrorism intelligence and law enforcement capacity, greatly constrain the spectrum of their operations, which can be modelled quite reliably in a probabilistic manner. However, state-sponsored terrorism poses a much more severe challenge, especially in connection with the use of weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear and chemical weapons. In this paper, the fundamental principles of terrorism risk assessment are reviewed, and the use of expert judgement is illustrated in relation to state-sponsored nuclear and chemical weapon deployment. Date: 2021 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_22 Ordering information: This item can be ordered from DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_22 Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in International Series in Operations Research & Management Science from Springer |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.