Customized Structural Elicitation

Rachel L. Wilkerson () and Jim Q. Smith ()
Additional contact information
Rachel L. Wilkerson: University of Warwick
Jim Q. Smith: Alan Turing Institute, University of Warwick

Chapter Chapter 4 in Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, 2021, pp 83-113 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Expert elicitation is a powerful tool when modelling complex problems, especially in the common scenario when current probabilities are unknown and data is unavailable for certain regions of the probability space. Such methods are now widely developed, well understood, and have been used to model systems in a variety of domains including climate change, food insecurity, and nuclear risk assessment Barons et al. (2018), Rougier and Crucifix (2018), Hanea et al. (2006). However, eliciting expert probabilities faithfully has proved to be a sensitive task, particularly in multivariate settings. We argue that first eliciting structure is critical to the accuracy of the model, particularly as conducting a probability elicitation is time and resource-intensive.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_4

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783030464745

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_4

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in International Series in Operations Research & Management Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().