Judgmental Interventions and Behavioral Change

Fotios Petropoulos () and Konstantinos Nikopoulos
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Fotios Petropoulos: University of Bath
Konstantinos Nikopoulos: Durham University

Chapter Chapter 5 in Judgment in Predictive Analytics, 2023, pp 115-131 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Previous empirical studies have shown that a simple combination of the formal (statistical) forecast and its judgmentally revised counterpart (expert forecast) can lead to a more accurate final forecast. However, it is argued that a further adjustment of the expert adjusted forecast would ultimately lead to a long-term change of forecasters’ behavior. Expecting that forecasters will not act hyper-rational to reach an equilibrium, the degree of their behavior change is not easy to be estimated. In this study, we try to assess the degree of this behavior change through a laboratory experiment. The adjustments of experts, with and without a 50–50% combination of system-expert forecast being occurred, are recorded and analyzed. We observe that the experts’ adjustments increase in size once they are informed that a subsequent adjustment takes place; one that essentially halves the expert adjustment. In other words, participants in our experiment try to mitigate for that further adjustment and retain the ownership of the final forecasts.

Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment; Adjustment; Statistical forecast; Combination; Rational behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-031-30085-1_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1_5

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