Developing Robust Climate Policies: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach

Alexandros Nikas () and Haris Doukas ()
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Alexandros Nikas: National Technical University of Athens
Haris Doukas: National Technical University of Athens

Chapter Chapter 11 in Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics, 2016, pp 239-263 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has been considered one of the most significant risks for sustainability in our century; in order to move towards low-carbon and climate resilient economies, fundamental changes must take place. In this direction, the European Union has set ambitious goals regarding the transition of its Member States to low carbon societies, but the policy strategies to promote this transition must be socially acceptable and supported. So far, climate policies have been evaluated using quantitative methods, including general equilibrium and integrated assessment models but, despite their undoubted contribution to climate modeling, both the quantitative frameworks used for studying climate change and its impacts and those aiming at policy optimization or evaluation feature significant uncertainties and limitations. In order to overcome these issues, a Fuzzy Cognitive Map based approach is proposed, aiming to directly involve stakeholders and assess human knowledge and expertise. The suggested methodological framework can significantly support climate policy making, by supplementing quantitative models and exploring impacts of selected sets of policies, based on qualitative information deriving from a structured stakeholder engagement process. Finally, an innovative approach of incorporating the concept of time into the methodology is proposed and evaluated, in the aim of enhancing the robustness of transition pathways.

Keywords: Climate Policy; Threshold Function; Stakeholder Engagement; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium; Hyperbolic Tangent Function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-319-33121-8_11

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-33121-8_11

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