Policy Analysis Using a Microsimulation Model of the Italian Households

Carlo Bianchi, Marzia Romanelli and Pietro A. Vagliasindi ()
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Pietro A. Vagliasindi: University of Parma

Chapter 13 in New Tools of Economic Dynamics, 2005, pp 221-238 from Springer

Abstract: Summary In this paper, we apply a dynamic microsimulation approach, which allows us to examine the evolution of the system as a whole and at the same time to focus our attention on the different typologies of workers and pensioners. The latter objective is achieved by simulating individual reactions to systemic changes, while taking into account the regional dimensions. This technique also enables us to perform a general micro-analysis of the effects of past reforms on family pension-income distribution and average individual pension-benefits. The analytical framework used is the dynamic microsimulation model MIND, jointly developed by the University of Parma and Pisa, that incorporates behavioural analysis of individual choices of retirement age, derived from the Stock-Wise [24] option value model. We also perform sensitivity analysis on the model. This represents a valuable technique for treating uncertainty in input variables and for testing the robustness of the simulation results to possible changes in the macroeconomic scenario. In particular, we measure the economic impact resulting from alternative values of the income growth rate and the real interest rate as well as the effect of different distributions of the education degree reached by the individuals.

Keywords: pension reforms; income distribution; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-28444-4_13

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DOI: 10.1007/3-540-28444-3_13

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