Validating a Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Italian Households
Carlo Bianchi,
Marzia Romanelli and
Pietro A. Vagliasindi ()
Additional contact information
Pietro A. Vagliasindi: University of Parma
Chapter 14 in New Tools of Economic Dynamics, 2005, pp 239-254 from Springer
Abstract:
Summary The recent literature — including among others Redmond et al. [22], Gupta and Kapur [13], Mitton et al. [19] — has highlighted model alignment and validation as crucial issues to be tackled when microsimulating the consequences of public policies. This paper discusses some preliminary validation experiments performed on the model inputs, procedures and simulation results. The validation process that we use involves external checks, such as the ex-post comparison (from 1996 since 1999) of aggregated key macro variables (e.g. dependent workers’ incomes, and demographic variables) with official data (e.g. supplied by the Italian National Institute for Statistics ISTAT) at national and at regional level (North, Centre and South). We test the appropriateness of the main assumptions and specification of the model and policies’ effectiveness also using Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, our analysis allows us to test MIND’s ability in forecasting demographic and economic trends and in capturing socio-economic dynamics for regional areas.
Keywords: microsimulation; retirement choice; validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-28444-4_14
Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783540284444
DOI: 10.1007/3-540-28444-3_14
Access Statistics for this chapter
More chapters in Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().