Stochastic Programming Based PERT Modeling

A. Gouda, D. Monhor and T. Szántai
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A. Gouda: Budapest University of Technology and Economics
D. Monhor: Western Hungarian University
T. Szántai: Budapest University of Technology and Economics

A chapter in Coping with Uncertainty, 2006, pp 241-255 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Main drawback of the traditional PERT modeling is that the probabilistic characteristics determined for the project completion time are only valid when it is supposed that any activity can be started promtly after executing all of its predecessor activities. This is possible in the case of scheduling computer tasks, however it is hardly possible in many other cases, like architectural project planning what is one of the the most important applicational areas of PERT modeling. In the paper a stochastic programming based PERT modeling will be introduced. This modeling will produce deterministic earliest starting times for the activities of the project. These deterministic starting times will be attainable with prescribed probability. So we also get an estimated project completion time what is attainable with the same prescribed probability. Numerical examples will be given for comparing the traditional and the newly introduced PERT modeling techniques.

Keywords: Completion Time; Critical Path; Stochastic Programming; Terminal Node; Dirichlet Distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-35262-4_14

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DOI: 10.1007/3-540-35262-7_14

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