Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems

M. Makowski
Additional contact information
M. Makowski: International Institute for Applied System Analysis

A chapter in Coping with Uncertainty, 2006, pp 47-64 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Uncertainty is a key issue in many public debates and policy making, including climate change, pension systems, and integrated management of catastrophic risks. Rational treatment of uncertainty in many such situations requires new methods not only for the appropriate handling of endogenous uncertainties but also for modeling complex problems. The paper first outlines the key issues related to uncertainties and risks, including some pitfalls of using traditional methods in situations when they are inappropriate. Then, new methods of modeling endogenous uncertainties and catastrophic risks are summarized. Next, structured modeling technology developed for handling the whole modeling process of model-based support for solving complex problems is discussed. The development of the presented methods has been motivated by actual policymaking issues, and the methods have been applied to complex problems. However, the presentation is deliberately kept at a level comprehensible to a broad audience.

Keywords: endogenous uncertainty; catastrophic risk; structured modeling; decision-making support; mathematical modeling; integrated model analysis; optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-35262-4_3

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783540352624

DOI: 10.1007/3-540-35262-7_3

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().