Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: How to Go About It?

Matthias Jonas (), Thomas White (), Gregg Marland (), Daniel Lieberman (), Zbigniew Nahorski () and Sten Nilsson ()
Additional contact information
Matthias Jonas: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Thomas White: Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre
Gregg Marland: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Daniel Lieberman: ICF International
Zbigniew Nahorski: Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Sten Nilsson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Chapter Chapter 11 in Coping with Uncertainty, 2010, pp 229-245 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Parties to the Convention publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories (whether at the global, national, corporate, or other level) contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For scientific, political, and economic reasons it is important to deal with the uncertainty of emissions estimates proactively. Proper treatment of uncertainty affects everything from our understanding of the physical system to the economics of mitigation strategies and the politics of mitigation agreements. A comprehensive and consistent understanding of, and a framework for dealing with, the uncertainty of emissions estimates should have a large impact on the functioning and effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol and its successor. This chapter attempts to pull together relevant fragments of knowledge, allowing us to get a better picture of how to go about dealing with the uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories.

Keywords: Emission Reduction; Kyoto Protocol; Emission Estimate; Emission Change; Reduction Commitment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1_11

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