Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Water Resource: A System Dynamics Approach

Qi Zhou (), Tianyue Yang, Yangqi Jiao and Kanglin Liu
Additional contact information
Qi Zhou: Beijing Jiaotong University
Tianyue Yang: Beijing Jiaotong University
Yangqi Jiao: Beijing Jiaotong University
Kanglin Liu: Beijing Jiaotong University

A chapter in AI and Analytics for Smart Cities and Service Systems, 2021, pp 197-211 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The data show that the shortage and deterioration of water resources have brought serious impact on China, and these problems need to be solved. In this paper, the four causal chains of China’s water resources system are constructed by comprehensively considering the factors of population, society and economic development, and the system dynamics method for forecasting China’s water resources demand from 2013 to 2025 is established. Based on the analysis of the proposed water system dynamics model, the total water demand, water conservancy investment and water recycling in China under different water resources strategies are predicted. Under the water resources strategy of high investment in water conservancy facilities, low wastewater discharge rate and high wastewater purification rate, the total water demand in China in 2025 will be about 722 billion M3, the investment in water conservancy facilities will exceed 6815 billion yuan and the recycled water will exceed 43 billion M3. In addition to population and economic factors, we also pay attention to environmental factors. In addition, we introduce water shortage coefficient and environmental pollution coefficient to evaluate the environmental benefits of different policies. From the perspective of our sustainability model and integrated numerical results, several interesting management insights were observed. For example, by reducing the discharge of domestic and production sewage, improving the sewage purification rate and investment in water infrastructure, the water shortage coefficient will be reduced by about 8.96%, and the environmental pollution coefficient will be reduced by about 14.8%, which is conducive to promoting the future development of China’s water resources, as well as the environment and economy.

Keywords: System dynamics; Prediction; Water demand; Water resources development strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-3-030-90275-9_17

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783030902759

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-90275-9_17

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Lecture Notes in Operations Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().