Snow Avalanche Hazard Prediction Using the Best-Worst Method—Case Study: The Šar Mountains, Serbia

Uroš Durlević (), Ivan Novković, Senka Bajić, Miroljub Milinčić, Aleksandar Valjarević, Nina Čegar and Tin Lukić
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Uroš Durlević: University of Belgrade
Ivan Novković: University of Belgrade
Senka Bajić: University of Novi Sad
Miroljub Milinčić: University of Belgrade
Aleksandar Valjarević: University of Belgrade
Nina Čegar: University of Belgrade
Tin Lukić: University of Novi Sad

Chapter Chapter 12 in Advances in Best-Worst Method, 2023, pp 211-226 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Snow avalanches are one of the most frequent natural hazards in high mountain regions. In this study, a map of the susceptibility of the Šar Mountains to snow avalanches was determined. The study area is located in the southern part of Serbia, which has the Status of a National park. Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing are used to analysis and cartographical presentation of nine the most important elements of natural conditions which have an influence on avalanche development. Then, by applying the best-worst method (BWM) for each of the criteria was given a weighting coefficient depending on its importance for the avalanche occurrence. A synthetic map of snow avalanche susceptibility was created by processing geospatial data in the GIS software. The obtained results show that high susceptibility covers 16.9% of the territory, while 10.7% of the total area is very highly susceptible. The final results may be useful to decision-makers, local self-governments, emergency management services, and mountaineering services to mitigate human and material losses from snow avalanches. This study is the first to use the BWM methodology for snow avalanche hazard analysis.

Keywords: Natural conditions; Snow avalanche; Best-Worst method; GIS; Environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-40328-6_12

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