Simulation and Analysis of Risk Evolution in Oil Trade Network from the Perspective of Supply Chain

Xiangyu Wang (), Chunhua Yin () and Zeyu Wei ()
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Xiangyu Wang: Beijing Information Science and Technology University
Chunhua Yin: Beijing Information Science and Technology University
Zeyu Wei: Beijing Information Science and Technology University

A chapter in LISS 2024, 2025, pp 241-250 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This article takes the actual operation of the oil trade supply chain as a perspective, identifies and quantifies the risk influencing factors of the oil trade supply chain from three aspects: risk subjects, operational processes, and the environment. The entropy weight critic method is used to calculate the weights of each factor, and then the evaluation values of each risk indicator are obtained. Combining with the transmission relationship between each risk influencing factor, a risk evolution model of the oil trade supply chain based on system dynamics is constructed, providing reference for protecting the safety and stability of oil imports. The simulation results of risk evolution trend and risk sensitivity degree show that among social risk, economic risk, and ecological risk, the evolution trend of ecological risk increases the fastest; Social risk is most sensitive to policy risk, economic risk is most sensitive to design risk, and ecological risk is most sensitive to recovery risk. It is necessary to focus on strengthening the prevention of policy risk, design risk, and recovery risk.

Keywords: Oil trade supply chain; System dynamics; Entropy weight critical weight method; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-981-96-9697-0_20

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-96-9697-0_20

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