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Spot and Freight Rate Futures in the Tanker Shipping Market: Short-Term Forecasting with Linear and Non-Linear Methods

Christian Spreckelsen (), Hans-Joerg Mettenheim () and Michael Breitner ()
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Christian Spreckelsen: Institut fuer Wirtschaftsinformatik
Hans-Joerg Mettenheim: Institut fuer Wirtschaftsinformatik

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2012, 2014, pp 247-252 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper tests the forecasting and trading performance of popular linear and non-linear forecasting models in predicting spot and forward freight rates in the dirty tanker shipping market. Maritime forecasting studies using neural networks are rare and only focus on spot rates. We build on former investigations, but we extend our study on freight rates derivatives. Our conclusion is, that non-linear methods like neural networks are suitable for short-term forecasting and trading freight rates, as their results match or improve on those of other models.

Keywords: Time Series Model; Trading Performance; Spot Rate; Vector Error Correction Model; Freight Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_36

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