Strategic Deterrence of Terrorist Attacks

Marcus Wiens, Sascha Meng () and Frank Schultmann ()
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Sascha Meng: KIT
Frank Schultmann: KIT

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2014, 2016, pp 621-626 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Protection againstWiens, Marcus terrorist threats hasMeng, Sascha become an integralSchultmann, Frank part of organisational and national security strategies. But research on adversarial risks is still dominated by approaches which focus too much on historical frequencies and which do not sufficiently account for the terrorists motives and the strategic component of the interaction. In this paper we model the classical risk analysis approach using a specific variant of adaptive play and compare it with a direct implementation approach. We find that the latter allows for a more purposeful use of security measures as defenders avoid to get caught in a “hare-tortoise-trap”. We specify the conditions under which the direct implementation outperforms adaptive play in the sense that it lowers the cost of defence at a given rate of deterrence. We analyse the robustness of our results and discuss the implications and requirements for practical application.

Keywords: Attack Rate; Direct Implementation; Adversarial Risk; Average Damage; Fictitious Play (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-319-28697-6_86

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-28697-6_86

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