The Value of System Dynamics Modeling in Policy Analytics and Planning

Norman Wayne Porter ()
Additional contact information
Norman Wayne Porter: Naval Postgraduate School, Defense Analysis Department

A chapter in Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics, 2018, pp 123-150 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract An efficacious policy and planning process must be focused on enhancing the ability of decision makers to make sense of an uncertain and complex environment. One tool that could prove useful in this process is system dynamics modeling, created by Jay Forrester at MIT. Use of small system dynamics models (with each module containing ten stocks or less) as a decision support tool has recently been explored in three areas of regional planning: modeling a regional economic and education strategy for Central Coast California; the modeling of U.S.-China relations; and, the modeling of violent extremist activity. In each case, an integrated system dynamics model was created or planned that included multiple modules that comprise a strategic system. The models allowed decision-makers to use a “flight control simulator” or “dashboard” to better understand potential, non-linear, behavioral outcomes over time. When used in concert with other methods and tools of evaluation, system dynamics may provide enhanced understanding and key insights into problems previously thought too complex for this level of analysis and may encourage decision makers to examine a longer time horizon in overcoming policy resistance and establishing system stability.

Keywords: Complexity; System dynamics; Policy and planning; Decision-makers; Feedback; Non-linearity; Modeling and simulation; Policy resistance; Net assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:paitcp:978-3-319-61762-6_6

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319617626

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61762-6_6

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Public Administration and Information Technology from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().