Causal Layered Analysis Application in Strategic Technology Foresighting

Petrus Letaba ()
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Petrus Letaba: University of Pretoria

A chapter in Human-Centred Technology Management for a Sustainable Future, 2025, pp 343-351 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The world is experiencing an unprecedented environment that is difficult to manage due to the increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). An investigation of the application of a transformative foresight technique, causal layered analysis (CLA), shows its poor adoption in the real world. Most foresight exercises are shown to be trapped in a perspective that past trends influence the future, which is becoming less of the case. A recommendation is made regarding the need to simplify the CLA to improve its adoption. This study shows that CLA can be used to deepen the signals before the scenario development or directly as part of scenario development.

Keywords: Transformative foresight; Strategic foresight; VUCA; Causal layered analysis; Structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-031-72490-9_34

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-72490-9_34

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