Developing a Toolbox for Scenario-Based Foresight

Patrick Ködding (), Christian Koldewey () and Roman Dumitrescu ()
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Patrick Ködding: University of Paderborn
Christian Koldewey: University of Paderborn
Roman Dumitrescu: University of Paderborn

A chapter in Human-Centred Technology Management for a Sustainable Future, 2025, pp 531-540 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Scenario-based foresight enables companies to remain competitive in rapidly changing and complex environments by systematically dealing with the future. Yet, its use in practice has decreased significantly. One major challenge is the design of a scenario process that is customized to the unique requirements of a new scenario project. Specifically, practitioners are faced with selecting suitable methodical approaches and supporting digital tools out of a high number of possibilities. A comprehensive, structured overview of methods and tools is missing. In this paper, we develop a toolbox for scenario-based foresight using design science research. The toolbox consists of 79 method building blocks and 9 tool building blocks. The building blocks enable practitioners to design their customized scenario process and to select the appropriate digital tools with low effort during the preparation phase of a scenario project. The applicability of the toolbox is shown using a previously conducted scenario project.

Keywords: Scenario planning; Scenario technique; Method engineering; Artificial intelligence; Digital technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-031-72490-9_53

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-72490-9_53

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