Discriminatory Models of Bankruptcy Risk of Polish Enterprises from an Industry Perspective

Bernard Kokczyński ()
Additional contact information
Bernard Kokczyński: University of Lodz

A chapter in New Perspectives and Paradigms in Applied Economics and Business, 2025, pp 29-44 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This article examines bankruptcy prediction models for non-public Polish enterprises, using data from 2017–2021 for 416 companies across trade, production, and services, sourced from the Emerging Markets Information Service (EMIS). Nine discriminant functions were constructed, each bespoke to industry nuances, applying a group mean equality test for financial indicator selection and a stepwise forward method for model building. Model efficiencies were assessed against those created from unprocessed and winsorized data, utilizing two winsorization methods to minimize outlier effects. The primary aim was to develop a model with the highest classification efficiency on a test set and compare it with models by Polish researchers. Results underscore the necessity of tailoring models to the specificities of the Polish market and industries, revealing differences in classification effectiveness. Despite employing a group mean test and stepwise forward analysis, the production sector model displayed lesser discriminative efficiency compared to Pociecha D1 and Mączyńska-Zawadzki G models. The study emphasizes the critical difference in the approach to variable selection and analysis, stressing the importance of a comprehensive approach to variable selection and the need to test models under diverse conditions to enhance their bankruptcy prediction capability.

Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction models; Winsorization of data; Methods of selecting variables for models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-031-77363-1_3

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783031773631

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-77363-1_3

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().