Risk Assessment of Technology Development Projects Under Uncertainty: Evaluation of Dry Coating Technology in Battery Cell Production

Miha Podbreznik (), Tim Zeitz and Florian Degen
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Miha Podbreznik: Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production FFB
Tim Zeitz: Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production FFB
Florian Degen: Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production FFB

A chapter in Technology Management for Intelligent, Open and Responsible Organizations and Ecosystems, 2026, pp 147-154 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Risk assessment in innovation and technology development projects is crucial. Yet, existing frameworks often fail to capture the complexities and uncertainties inherent in such projects. This paper introduces a novel framework tailored for technology development projects, integrating uncertainty through the Technology Risk Number (TRN), a metric quantified in Technology Risk Points (TRPs), ranging from 0 to 1260 TRPs. A higher TRN signifies greater risk, offering a standardized method for comparing technologies. The framework's applicability is demonstrated by assessing the risk of dry coating technology in battery cell production, resulting in a TRN of 336 TRPs within an uncertainty range of 140 to 672 TRPs. The analysis reveals balanced contributions from market, regulatory, competitive, and technological factors. This framework and its TRN metric provide an uncertainty-aware tool for evaluating and comparing the risk profiles of emerging technologies, thereby supporting informed decision-making.

Keywords: risk assessment; technology project; framework; uncertainty; dry coating (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-032-23124-6_18

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-23124-6_18

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