The Volatility of the Global Food Price Index and Influencing Factors

Tuyen Trung Dang, Hong Thi Nguyen (), Suong Thi Mai Nguyen, Cuong Tran, Trung Ngoc Nguyen and Cung Huu Nguyen
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Tuyen Trung Dang: VNU University of Economics and Business
Hong Thi Nguyen: East Asia University of Technology
Suong Thi Mai Nguyen: VNU University of Economics and Business
Cuong Tran: Hanoi University of Industry
Trung Ngoc Nguyen: Electric Power University
Cung Huu Nguyen: VNU School of Interdisciplinary Sciences and Arts

A chapter in Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Research in Management and Technovation, 2025, pp 361-372 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The paper utilized monthly data spanning from January 2000 to October 2023 and employed the ARDL model to analyze the factors influencing the global food price index. The findings indicate that the financial volatility index has a significant impact on agricultural markets. However, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is insufficient scientific evidence to support the impact of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on the global food price index. In light of these results, the paper suggests policy recommendations aimed at stabilizing food prices in countries and ensuring global food security. These include enhancing techniques for evaluating and forecasting global food price volatility, improving risk management strategies for food price fluctuations, and fostering international cooperation to address food price instability. The findings and recommendations of this study offer valuable guidance for governments in managing, controlling, and mitigating the risks associated with food price fluctuations, thereby protecting both people's livelihoods and the nation’s economic stability.

Keywords: ARDL model; Economic policy uncertainty; Food price volatility; Geopolitical risk; VIX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-981-97-9992-3_24

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-97-9992-3_24

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