Relationship Between Inflation and Macroeconomic Variables During Pre- and Post-reform Period
Indu Grewal ()
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Indu Grewal: Narsee Monjee Institute of Management, SOL
Chapter Chapter 19 in Digital Economy Post COVID-19 Era, 2023, pp 307-319 from Springer
Abstract:
Abstract This study examines the relationships between inflation and three macroeconomic indices using secondary data. Index of Import Prices (IMP), Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and money supply (MS), for India. The overall time period (from 1980 to 2016) was divided into three sub-periods: pre-reform period (1980–1990), post-reform period (1991–2000) and subsequent period (2001–2016). It emerged that the MS happens to be the crucial element for the shift in inflation (CPI) during overall period, followed by IMP. The IIP did not emerge as catalyst for inflation to decrease. The inflation, however, had some effects on IIP during pre- and post-reform periods, but this relationship was bidirectional during subsequent period. Similarly, the MS did not cause inflation during pre- and post-reform periods. Importantly, during first and second sub-periods, the causal effect of imports on inflation did not appear. During subsequent period, the economy felt the heat of imported inflation.
Keywords: Inflation; Granger causality; Money supply; Index of industrial production; Vector autoregressive (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-981-99-0197-5_19
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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-99-0197-5_19
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