Forecasting the Spatial Distribution of Buildings that Will Remain in the Future

Toshihiro Osaragi () and Maki Kishimoto ()
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Toshihiro Osaragi: Tokyo Institute of Technology
Maki Kishimoto: Tokyo Institute of Technology

A chapter in From Science to Society, 2018, pp 3-12 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Changes in land use in established city areas generally arise when older style buildings are demolished and replaced by contemporary buildings. The direction and the speed of land use change are dependent on the possibility and probability that buildings will be demolished or will remain in the future. Hence, various studies about the life span of buildings have been carried out, and proposed statistical models that could estimate the value of probability that buildings would be demolished or would remain in a specific time interval, based on the age of buildings. However, in general it is not easy to acquire the necessary information about the age of buildings. In order to extend the application of the proposed model to these cases, we propose a method for estimating the number of buildings that will remain in the future when data about the age of buildings cannot be obtained.

Keywords: Interval probability function of remainder; Age of building; Life span; Disaster prevention planning; Land use model; Tokyo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prochp:978-3-319-65687-8_1

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65687-8_1

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