Long-Run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding on Markets and Production Networks: Geographical Simulation Analysis

Ikumo Isono () and Satoru Kumagai
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Ikumo Isono: Institute of Developing Economies
Satoru Kumagai: Inter-disciplinary Studies Center, IDE-JETRO

Chapter Chapter 8 in Resilience and Recovery in Asian Disasters, 2015, pp 155-169 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on affected countries by examining the case of flooding in Thailand in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM modeling and utilizing short-run forecasts for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will likely be moderate as many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand.

Keywords: Transport Cost; Baseline Scenario; Production Network; Great East Japan Earthquake; Flood Scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:rischp:978-4-431-55022-8_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55022-8_8

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