Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes

Igor A. Yevsikov (), Konstantin O. Korovin () and Askar I. Sarygulov ()
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Igor A. Yevsikov: Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics of the Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering
Konstantin O. Korovin: Saint Petersburg Peter the Great Polytechnic University
Askar I. Sarygulov: Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Doctor of Economic Sciences

A chapter in Industry 4.0, 2017, pp 93-116 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The evolution of social-economic systems is nonlinear, containing both periods of gradual changes and swift transformational upswings. Seven years after the end of the last crisis of 2007–2009, recovery rates of the US and European economies remain extremely low. One of the reasons is structural-economic crisis, requiring considerable time and substantial financial resources to overcome. By the start of the crisis, all developed economies of the world, particularly US economy, had well pronounced structural allometry with disproportionally high share of the financial and banking sectors. In this paper we propose new approaches for the evaluation of structural shifts, based on the attractor theory, the use of proportionality factor and Wold-Mensch’ nonlinear model. Our results allow the construction of structural changes monitoring system and also demonstrated, that there always exist certain states in economic system, in which the volume of production (GDP) exceeds their empirical value. The proposed system for the monitoring of structural changes can be used not only for research purposes, but also for structural shift management.

Keywords: Industrial and technological structures; Nonlinear attractor; Structural monitoring systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:seschp:978-3-319-49604-7_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_5

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